Mine Operators Hold Strong Reluctance to Sell, Manganese Ore Market Fluctuates Upward [SMM Manganese Ore Daily Report]

November 18:

North China ports: South African high-iron 29.6-30.1 yuan/mtu, flat WoW; South African semi-carbonate 34.1-34.6 yuan/mtu, flat WoW; Gabon 39.7-40.5 yuan/mtu, flat WoW; Australian lumps 39.9-40.6 yuan/mtu, flat WoW; South African medium-iron 35.4-35.9 yuan/mtu, up 0.28% WoW.

South China ports: South African high-iron 30.8-31.3 yuan/mtu, flat WoW; South African semi-carbonate 36.9-37.6 yuan/mtu, flat WoW; Gabon 40.5-41.2 yuan/mtu, flat WoW; Australian lumps 40.2-40.9 yuan/mtu, flat WoW; South African medium-iron 37.3-37.8 yuan/mtu, up 1.35% WoW.

The manganese ore market currently showed an upward fluctuation pattern, with miners' offers remaining firm and downstream alloy enterprises' room for purchase negotiation continuously narrowing. Overall spot market prices held up well within a high range.

Supply side, Q4 manganese ore offers of overseas miners to China increased, coupled with the impact of the traditional off-season for shipments. Manganese ore volumes shipped from mines to main ports in China declined YoY in Q4. The rising cost of future arrivals further strengthened miners' bullish expectations, leading to an increasingly obvious reluctance to sell in the spot market. Offers remained firm, and actual transaction prices stayed stable at high levels.

Demand side, downstream demand showed regional divergence. Alloy plants in north China maintained a normal production schedule pace, adopting a "purchase as needed" approach for manganese ore, with relatively steady demand release. The southern market, however, polarized: Hunan saw new SiMn capacity come online today, which directly boosted local manganese ore procurement demand; while in Yunnan, due to the arrival of the rainy season, rising electricity prices pushed up alloy production costs, prompting most plants to choose production cuts to avoid peak periods, significantly reducing production schedules, and corresponding manganese ore procurement demand pulled back.

Inventory side, a healthy destocking trend provided effective support for high prices. Manganese ore inventory at domestic main ports continued its destocking trend last week, with overall inventory currently maintained at a medium level, and industry inventory pressure relatively controllable.

Overall, the current manganese ore market's supply-demand pattern featured "tight supply, divergent demand, and healthy inventory." In the short term, supply pressure in the manganese ore market was relatively limited, and the overall market was expected to maintain a strong holding pattern.